Trimmed performance estimators

This is a quick follow-up on my previous post on Quantile normalization.

Instead of removing just the top X quantile of returns/trades when optimizing a strategy’s parameters space, my recent approach has been to remove the top and bottom X quantiles, so effectively using a robust trimmed estimator of performance instead of the estimator itself.

The advantages are symmetric to those discussed in the previous post, as long as your backtest allows for realistic modelling of trades execution – e.g. if  you are using stop orders and trade bars (as opposed to tick data), you probably want to add an amount of slippage in some way proportional to the size of bar (specification needed because a conservative modelling of limit orders is easier to achieve).

Trimming out the worst returns is particular useful in case of strategies having single big losses (such are mean-reversion strategies of some kind usually), whereas trimming the best returns is more useful for strategies with big positive days (e.g. trend-following strategies).

Two (of many) possible variants are:

-To preserve autocorrelations of a strategy’s returns, one could decide to remove blocks of trades/days, instead of individual trades/days (in a similar fashion to what one does when bootstrapping blocks of trades/days).

-To preserve the number of samples in our results instead of removing the top (worst) days, one could replace them with the average/median positive (losing) days.

Something else to note is that if your performance measure makes use of std deviation (as it’s the case for Sharpe Ratio), trimming the tails of the returns from its computation is likely to result in an overestimation of the performance.

Finally, here’s the Matlab code:

———————————
normalise_excess_pnl = 1;
normalisation_quantile = 0.98;

if normalise_excess_pnl

best_daily_pnl = quantile(pnl_daily,normalisation_quantile);
worst_daily_pnl = quantile(pnl_daily,1-normalisation_quantile);

pnl_daily(pnl_daily>=best_daily_pnl ) = [];
pnl_daily(pnl_daily<=worst_daily_pnl ) = [];

end

———————————

(I usually have the variable normalise_excess_pnl automatically initialised to 1 or 0 from the external environment, according to whether or not I’m running an optimisation).


Andrea

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About mathtrading

My name is Andrea La Rosa and I am a quant trader based in the UK. In the past I worked as a quant in the prop desk of an investment bank, before deciding to fully dedicate myself to quantitative trading.
This entry was posted in On backtesting, Performance Metrics and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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